Mercury Transit of the Sun 11 Nov 2019

12:00 – 17:30 Zulu {UTC}

Video made with Helioviewer   👉  https://www.helioviewer.org/

Mercury is that tiny black dot moving west to east near the suns equator as viewed from the Solar Dynamics Observatory {SDO}

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06 Serial Number: 475 Issue Time: 2019 Oct 25 0850 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2019 Oct 25 0849 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC
 
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees 
Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power 
systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased 
drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to 
Washington state.

 


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notifications-timeline[1]

Typhoon Hagibis 🌀 — KEU1813

WDPN31 PGTW 100900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 021// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 654 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL […]

via Typhoon Hagibis 🌀 — KEU1813

Typhoon Hagibis 🌀

abpwsairHagisis Typhoon

WDPN31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 
021//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 654 NM
SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 20NM EYE.
BASED ON THE MSI LOOP, STY 20W HAS RETURNED FROM A MOMENTARY
NORTHWARD TROCHOIDAL JOG, TYPICAL OF VERY INTENSE CYCLONES. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE THAT IS NOW VERTICALLY
STACKED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140KTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT AND
NEAR-CONCENTRIC DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T7.0/140KTS FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND
RCTP. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH THE POLEWARD CHANNEL
GREATLY ENHANCED BY JET WINDS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALONG TRACK SST VALUES (28-29C) ARE ALSO
CONDUCIVE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.     
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. 
   B. STY HAGIBIS WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, STEERED BY THE
STR, THROUGH TAU 36. AFTERWARD, IT WILL CREST THE STR AXIS AND
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE, MAKING A QUICK
LANDFALL NEAR YOKOSUKA VIA SAGAMI WAN SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48 BEFORE
EXITING BACK INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. BY TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF HOKKAIDO. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AND SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU 12. AFTERWARD, A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL COMMENCE. BY
TAU 48, STY 20W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BY TAU 72, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A COLD CORE LOW
WITH NEAR-HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND A VERY EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD WITH
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR BUT
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 48. THE
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

⚠️Space Weather Message Code: WARK06 Serial Number: 435 Issue Time: 2019 Sep 27 2022 UTC

notifications-timeline

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2019 Sep 27 2022 UTC
Valid To: 2019 Sep 28 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees 
Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power
 systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased 
drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher 
latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington
 state.

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